75% of successful applicants to Waseda, Keio universities hail from Tokyo area: analysis

TOKYO — In academic 2024, students from high schools in Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures accounted for some three-quarters of successful applicants to the prestigious Waseda and Keio universities, according to a Mainichi Shimbun analysis.

The figure is up from just over 60% in the 2009 academic year for the two schools, considered the most challenging private universities to enter in Japan.

It had earlier been found that the number of successful applicants at the seven national universities that were once imperial universities, including the University of Tokyo, increased for those from high schools in Tokyo plus Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures, but a similar geographic disparity has emerged at private schools with demanding entry requirements as well.

The Mainichi analyzed data based on an annual survey of high schools conducted by the Sunday Mainichi weekly magazine and Daigaku Tsushin, a news agency specializing in education. They compiled the number of successful applicants from the academic 1990 entrance exams — the first year of the National Center Test for University Admissions (now the Common Test for University Admissions) — to academic 2024, and tracked changes in the applicants’ regions of origin. The figures cover the general selection system excluding school recommendations and comprehensive selections, but include recommendations and other systems for Waseda University up to the academic 2013 entrance exams.

The total number of successful applicants (including those who applied to other universities) for Waseda University peaked at 22,192 in the 2012 academic year and has since declined, hovering around 15,000 in recent years. Keio University saw a similar trend, hitting its highest number of passing applicants — 10,246 — in academic 2011. Since then, the number has been in the 8,000 to 9,000 range.

Of these, the percentage of successful applicants from high schools in Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures increased 13 percentage points from 63% in the 2009 academic year to 76% in academic 2024 for Waseda University. The figure for Keio University also jumped 13 points, from 62% to 75%. The actual percentage is expected to be even higher than these figures, probably reaching nearly 80%, since the number of students from affiliated schools who have been accepted into these universities is not disclosed.

According an education ministry survey conducted in the 2023 academic year, average tuition for the first year at private universities was 959,205 yen (about $6,200), nearly double the standard tuition at national universities, which is set by a ministry ordinance at 535,800 yen (roughly $3,460). Since living expenses, including room and board, are even higher for students from rural areas, private universities are more likely to be affected by household income when students and their families are deciding a path to higher education.

Ryoji Matsuoka, associate professor of sociology of education at Ryukoku University and an expert on education disparities, said, “The (admittance) results of private universities cannot be interpreted in the same way as those of national universities, since the number of successful applicants to private universities includes those who have been accepted to multiple universities and departments.” But, he then pointed out, “In addition to the declining birth rate in rural areas, there may be a growing enthusiasm for education in the Tokyo area, where socioeconomically advantaged families are concentrated.”

Regarding the disparity in examinees by place of residence, the Mainichi found that the gap has widened among the seven former imperial universities — Hokkaido University, Tohoku University, the University of Tokyo, Nagoya University, Kyoto University, Osaka University and Kyushu University — over the 15-year period from academic 2008 to 2023. The percentage of successful applicants to those seven universities who were from Tokyo-area high schools increased from 11% to 20%, up 9 points.

(Japanese original by Kanami Ikawa and Makoto Fukazu, Tokyo City News Department)